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2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - "Sun Tzu said that, and I think he knows a little more about war than you do, pal. Because he invented it!"
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![Thread O 14 17 214 1,298 1 Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien - 4h Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h 2 MilitaryLand.net @Militarylandnet - Mar 4 A tweet thread on why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the amount they can actually get to Ukraine when their first force losses get so high that it starts becoming combat ineffective. Yes, its logistics. @BoringWar One of the reasons the famous 40-mile convoy is such a disaster is that much of it is valuable trucks--which are not probably out of fuel, with dead batteries, stuck in the mud and not salvageable. You can scan the convoy As correctly pointed out by some of you, Ukrainian troops seems to flooded the area north of Kyiv. That's the reason why the Russian advance is stagnating there. #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #Kyiv twitter.com/Militarylandne. here. 133 27 2,075 5,832 Iforces Forces News @ForcesNews 10h Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h Satellite pictures show a 40-mile convoy of Russian vehicles near the Ukrainian capital, #Kyiv. The Russian Army, like the Soviet Army before it, has manifested significant logistics problems for decades, and if anything the preliminary evidence is that the problem might be worse than expected. You can start with this report. But what is the convoy? And what is it carrying? Ben Barry from @IISS_org tells us. apps.dtic.mil CHNICA Soviet Logistics in the Afghanistan War OGE • CONN On 27 December 1979, Soviet forces invaded Afghanistan. What the Soviets envisioned as a .. FaceApp 27 145 1,035 WHAT IS would be significantly affected by forces outside their control, Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h Basically Soviet logistics as shown in Afghanistan were too rigid, top heavy and wedded to doctrine. What it means is that when things went wrong, there was signficant problem adjusting. The way Soviet logistics was so road centric (and weak for that) is telling and that coming to grips with them and solving them would not be THE RUSSIAN Soviet and dependence road transport systems could use on would be Kignificantly affected by forces outside their control. justifiably be called their Achilles heel in Afghanista As 4 17 120 855 and that coming to grips with them and solving them would not be discussed earlier, Afghanistan possessed very few roads capable of ASy. Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien - 4h Soviet use and dependence on road transport systems could handling motorized traffic. However, due to the lack of a rail Why does this all matter--it reveals that almost certainly that Russian combat strength started significantly below the stated levels, and is dropping fast as damaged but not destroyed equipment still in Russian hands cant be repaired and resupplied. justifiably be called their Achilles heel in Afghanista As discussed earlier, Afghanistan possessed very few roads capable of system and the small capability of the country's airfields to handling motorized traffic. However, due to the lack of a rail support 1 arge cargo aircraft, almost all supplies were forced to be system and the small capability of the country's airfields to support large cargo aircraft, almost all supplies were forced to be brought in by truck transport. The major route for this traffic was t7 89 926 brought in by truck transport. The major route for this traffic was 24 the Terme z to Kabul road. the Termez to Kabul road." Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h For normal resupply, the Soviets initiated system of For normal resupply, the Soviets initiated system of And all of this will get worse as Russia's weak link of trucks further wastes away. It is impossible to calculate how far below stated levels of strength Russian forces are because of these logistic difficulties. A very conservative guess would be around 25% a convoying large numbers of trucks (100-300 per convoy )." The large numbers of trucks (100-300 convoy ). 25 The distance of 300 miles initially required 12-14 days to complete convoying per 9. LI 106 922 distance of 300 miles initially required 12-14 days to complete 27 92 895 Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien - 4h the Russians have undertaken nothing at all Since the end of the Cold War, the Russians have undertaken nothing at all close to their deployment to attack Ukraine, which would be a challenge to any force. But is probably doubly for them as their logistical development Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien 4h close to their deployment to attack Ukraine, lam getting that figure from my own calculations in How the War was Won on WWII logistics for the Luftwaffe. Regularly one quarter of Luftwaffe aircraft were out of commission because of basic logistical problems. As the war went on, it was much higher than 25%. also seems not to have progressed much. The Russian army does not have enough trucks to meet its logistic requirement more than 90 miles beyond supply dumps. To reach a 180-mile range, the Russian army would have to double truck allocation to 400 trucks for each of the material-technical support brigades. To gain familiarity with Russian 3 LI 147 1,101 t] 46 757 Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien - 4h Indeed the Russian Army now seems to have fallen prey to one of the great temptations of many militaries created by dictators--lots of flashy weapons but little consideration about how to deliver them (few trucks). Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien - 4h logistic requirements and lift resources, a useful starting point is the Russian combined arms army. They btw, logistic difficulties might also help explain the incredibly deficient performance of the Russian Air Force. Both seeming to have insufficient supplies of directed munitions (thus having to use large numbers of dumb bombs), which means they have to fly low and be shot down. all have different force structures, but on paper, each combined army is assigned a material-technical The Russian army does not have enough trucks to meet its logistic requirement more than 90 miles support brigade. Each material-technical support brigade has two truck battalions with a total of 150 beyond supply dumps. To reach a 180-mile range, the Russian army would have to double truck allocation to 400 trucks for each of the material-technical support brigades. To gain familiarity with Russian 3 27 87 893 general cargo trucks with 50 trailers and 260 specialized trucks per brigade. The Russian army makes heavy use of tube and rocket artillery fire, and rocket ammunition is very bulky. Although each army is logistic requirements and lift resources, a useful starting point is the Russian combined arms army. They all have different force structures, but on paper, each combined army is assigned a material-technical support brigade. Each material-technical support brigade has two truck battalions with a total of 150 Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien 4h general cargo trucks with 50 trailers and 260 specialized trucks per brigade. The Russian army makes Also might explain how relatively few Russian planes overall they can maintain in operations. Much fewer in number than expected before the heavy use of tube and rocket artillery fire, and rocket ammunition is very bulky. Although each army is different, there are usually 56 to 90 multiple launch rocket system launchers in an army. Replenishing different, there are usually 56 to 90 multiple launch rocket system launchers in an army. Replenishing each launcher takes up the entire bed of the truck. If the combined arms army fired a single volley, it each launcher takes up the entire bed of the truck. If the combined arms army fired a single volley, it invasion started. would require 56 to 90 trucks just to replenish rocket ammunition. That is about a half of a dry cargo truck force in the material-technical support brigade just to replace one volley of rockets. There is also would require 56 to 90 trucks just to replenish rocket ammunition. That is about a half of a dry cargo between six to nine tube artillery battalions, nine air defense artillery battalions, 12 mechanized and Justin Bronk @Justin_BrOnk · Mar 4 recon battalions, three to five tank battalions, mortars, anti-tank missiles, and small arms ammunition - not to mention, food, engineering, medical supplies, and so on. Those requirements are harder to truck force in the material-technical support brigade just to replace one volley of rockets. There is also It has now been more than a week since Russia invaded Ukraine. At this stage, early explanations are no longer sufficient and analysts need to ask the big question: Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations? rusi.org/explore-our-re. #Ukraine #Russia estimate, but the potential resupply requirements are substantial. The Russian army force needs a lot of trucks just for ammunition and dry cargo replenishment. between six to nine tube artillery battalions, nine air defense artillery battalions, 12 mechanized and recon battalions, three to five tank battalions, mortars, anti-tank missiles, and small arms ammunition L7 169 1,262 not to mention, food, engineering, medical supplies, and so on. Those requirements are harder to 27 67 831 Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h estimate, but the potential resupply requirements are substantial. The Russian army force needs a lot of Indeed looking at this @WarOnTheRocks estimate, they Russians will struggle at 90 miles from working railheads. And they still suffer from the inflexibility mentioned by earlier reports at Afghanistan. Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h So, we give a very false idea of the realities of war when we talk about number of troops, AFVS, planes that the Russians deployed for the invasion. They started with fewer in combat conditions than we know, and it looks like Russian truck support is suffering hugely. trucks just for ammunition and dry cargo replenishment. Traditionally weak when it comes to supply, the Russian army might have exacerbated its weakness through ill-considered attempts at logistical 2 27 58 766 reform. Namely, the Kremlin handed over to a commercial firm much of "The civilian institutions are also now private, profit-making entities and the responsibility for supporting front-line battalions. not institutions driven by state planning considerations. As such, they Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien 4h Logistics, as it always does, will play a significant role in determining this war, right now the signs are not good for Russia, but people are mostly ignoring it and talking, as always, about tanks and planes.... expect to have a contractual relationship with the [defense ministry] and That's not a uniquely Russian problem, but it could become uniquely to make a profit, and the efficiency needed by business will collide with salient in coming weeks or months if Russian President Vladimir Putin the demand for effectiveness required by the military." pulls the proverbial trigger and orders the army that has massed along the 19 L7 113 991 Russia-Ukraine border-100,00o troops and 1,20o tanks-to roll west "This civil-military mix has no serious track record in the Russian armed forces, and is naturally the main area that will be exposed to severe Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 2h toward Kiev. Retweeted this but probably should have put this here. This should terrify the Russians if it means what it could mean. They are already running out of testing during combat operations," McDermott wrote. ADING warontherocks.com ECONOMICS trucks. Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fai. Russian Ruble It's not clear that Russia's smaller-scale intervention in Syria and eastern Russia's military buildup along the border with Ukraine has clearly gotten the attention of policymakers from Kiev to Washington, D.C. CI. Ukraine qualify as rigorous tests of this new quasi-civilian logistical 98.976 Jimmy @JimmySecUK · 6h In an apparent attempt to help fix their broken logistics, the Russians are pushing up all manner of civilian vehicles to the front in Ukraine. system for a bigger war. And it's worth noting that, within a couple years 80 of taking over army logistics, Oboronservis employees had embezzled so t7 129 989 60 much money that it became a national scandal. This is footage of a transport train around Rostov-on-Don. Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien - 4h 40 Here is another article highlighting the significant truck problem faced by the Russians (and their reliance on civilians to keep going--which will be a real handicap in any protracted war in Ukraine). 20 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 10 1W 1M 3M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y 25Y All Noah Smith @Noahpinion - Mar 2 Amazing thread explaining Russian logistical difficulties, and perhaps the entire course of the war, by looking at tires! Куда это все везут ? Куда это все везут ? Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko · Mar 2 This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season. 13 SOT 21 L] 269 1,012 1/ Show this thread Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien 2h TikTok forbes.com Ukrainian path to victory is clear. Go for every Russian truck they can see, particularly fuel trucks. Russian Army will freeze in its tracks. The Russian Army Depends On Civilians to Keep It Supplied. This Coul.. The Kremlin handed over to a single commercial firm much of the responsibility for supporting front-line battalions. It's not clear how .. 12 t7 332 1,575 LI 114 Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 2h 6 873 Btw. Replacing military grade trucks with civilian ones is catastrophic on many levels. You have to stick to better roads, they are less robust and you can't stock spare parts for all the different models Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien 4h If anything, early indications in Ukraine are that the Soviet Logistics problems are worse than expected. There are the basic problems of tire maintenance that has doomed some of the most expensive equipment Russia possesses. See @TrentTelenko for a few great threads NG REFUNL U We might be aboutto witnes alogstc colapse 15 27 115 1,128 t7 Steve Lookner Retweeted Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien 2] 97 1,078 Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h We might be about to witness a logistic collapse There is indications that basic rations have not been kept up to scratch, with soldiers given food seven years out of date, and at the same time running out of food already and having to loot from Ukrainian civilian supplies. Chinese militay tie, 6:04 PM · Mar 5, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone 212 Retweets 22 Quote Tweets 1,846 Likes 48 LI 986 O 3,468 28/02/2022 28/02/2022 26/02/2022 Karl T. Muth @KarlMuth Replying to @Noahpinion Bit of a tire expert here. Those aren't Soviet-era heavy truck radials. Chinese military tires, and I believe specifically the Yellow Sea YS20. This is a tire I first encountered in Somalia and Sudan; it's a bad Chinese copy of the excellent Michelin XZL military tire design. EXCLUSIVE inews.co.uk Putin's troops given food 7 years out of date as low morale and militar. 7:52 PM - Mar 2, 2022 - Twitter for Android 'I think they mistakenly thought they get could get to Kyiv very quickly and take the government out, cut the head of the snake type operatio... 1,646 Retweets 723 Quote Tweets 10.7K Likes 12 27 150 993 Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien - 4h Clearly there is Ukrainian understanding of these weaknesses, which has led to their very effective and constant efforts to attack Russian convoys-- and guess what they are doing. Destroying large numbers of precious InShOE 1:13 / 1:27 ) O * Russian trucks. 04/3/2022 Ukraine Weapons Tracker @UAWeapons · 6h #Ukraine: Images that tell a story. A Russian convoy in Pavlove Pole, #Kharkiv was ambushed in the forest, leaving behind a destroyed Tiger- M and two transport trucks. Notable materiel left behind includes RPG-30, 2x 9M113 ATGM with Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (224, of which destroyed: 102, damaged: 6, abandoned: 35, captured: 79) 9P135M GLS, Kord HMG & AGS-17 drum magazine. Show this thread Б34 KAMA'S 27/02/2022 03.03.2022 2. 634 27 155 1,064 7063 Ao Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · 4h And if Ukrainian claims are anywhere near the truth, they are destroying some of the most important--fuel trucks. As of today, the Ukrainians have claimed to destroy 60 Russian fuel carriers--which would be a significant blow. aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukra. CNN On S aa.com.tr Ukraine claims over 10,000 Russian soldiers killed since war Ukrainian General Staff says 1,870 units of heavy and light military equipment, including 39 fighter planes, 40 copters, 269 tanks .](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/list/002/328/513/9ff.jpg "Logistics, or lack thereof.")
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